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Two things to bear in mind when comparing the big impact of the 1973-77 shock with the small impact of the 2004-8 oil shock.

1. The impact of the former was amplified by widespread rationing. Rationing is not efficient compared to letting businesses decide for themselves how much to conserve in response to a price signal.

2. The impact of the latter was moderated by the relatively low weight of oil in GDP in 2004-8 compared to 1973.

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