Oct 17, 2022·edited Oct 17, 2022Liked by Marcus Nunes

But isn't the relationship between DivM4 and velocity a self-fulfilled prophecy,since DivM4 is used in the calculation of velocity itself? (I assume it's NGDP/DivM4?)

Expand full comment

re: "if velocity keeps rising, money supply growth will have to fall by more."

Right. M2 hasn't changed for c. 1 year. But DDs have risen. I.e., the composition of M2 has changed. So, the "demand for money" has fallen, and thus velocity has risen (dis-savings). So, short-term money flows are rising at the same time long-term money flows are falling. Until short-term money flows reverse, a recession will not happen. But it's harder to predict now that Powell has delayed the reporting of the money stock by a month.

Expand full comment

If you take spendable deposits divided by saved deposits, you get a velocity figure based on "money demand". Why? Because banks don't lend deposits, deposits are the result of lending.

Expand full comment

Short-term money flows are up, so is Atlanta's gDp now forecast of 4.3% for the 4th qtr.

Long-term money flows are down, so is Cleveland's CPI inflation forecast for the 4th qtr. of 2022 @ 5.0% annualized.

Expand full comment


Shadow Stats redefined measures of the money stock.

Expand full comment

Sumner: 19. November 2022 at 09:28

“I don’t view the monetary aggregate data as having much predictive value.”

We're about to see. Atlanta's gDpnow is @ 4.2%. Cleveland's CPI inflation nowcast is @ 5.23% for the 4th qtr.

Long-term money flows bottom in June 2023.

Expand full comment

LOL. Powell:

#1 “there was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time”

#2 “Inflation is not a problem for this time as near as I can figure. Right now, M2 [money supply] does not really have important implications. It is something we have to unlearn.”

#3 “the correlation between different aggregates [like] M2 and inflation is just very, very low”.


Parse date; R-gDp; Inflation

07/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.088 ,,,,, 1.195

08/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.124 ,,,,, 1.280

09/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.072 ,,,,, 1.143

10/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.093 ,,,,, 1.141

11/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.119 ,,,,, 0.906 deceleration

12/1/2022 ,,,,, 0.112 ,,,,, 0.594

01/1/2023 ,,,,, 0.107 ,,,,, 0.603

02/1/2023 ,,,,, 0.104 ,,,,, 0.543

03/1/2023 ,,,,, 0.111 ,,,,, 0.459

Expand full comment


Inflation Nowcasting - website

October 2022 8.09% y-o-y CPI

2022:Q4 7.20% CPI

Stagflation, business stagnation accompanied by inflation.

Expand full comment

See: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2022/08/23/liquidity-dries-up

" When deposits are removed from the banks, the banks have less money to lend and liquidity dries up."

Completely wrong. The lending capacity of the banks is determined by monetary policy, not the savings practices of the nonbank public. The last period of disintermediation for the banks was during the GFC, and before that, the GD.

The shift (mislabeled disintermediation) by the public from indirect investment through the banks, to direct investment or investment via the nonbanks, does not apply to the commercial banks ever since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1933 Bank Holiday.

Savings flowing through the nonbanks never leaves the payment’s system as anyone who has applied double-entry bookkeeping on a national scale should already know. There is just a change in the ownership of pre-existing DFI deposits within the payment’s system.

Ever since 1933 (Roosevelt's "Bank Holiday"), the Federal Reserve has had the capacity to take unified action, through its "open market power", to prevent any outflow of currency and deposits from the banking system.

Expand full comment

You can't run a regression test against required reserves, the FOMC's "ELEPHANT TRACKS". The FED covers up its tracks. Just look at Black Monday.

Expand full comment

In 2010, the PBOC’s RRR went to 18.5% – “to sterilize over-liquidity and get the money supply under control in order to prevent inflation or over-heating”

Expand full comment

The money stock can never be properly managed by any attempt to control the cost of credit. And the only tool, credit control device, at the disposal of the monetary authority in a free capitalistic system through which the volume of money can be properly controlled is legal reserves. Powell eliminated legal reserves in March 2020.

As I said: The FED will obviously, sometime in the future, lose control of the money stock.

May 8, 2020. 10:38 AMLink

Jerome Powell is the worst FED chairman ever.

Expand full comment

Have you seen Bernanke's "monetary aggregates"


Not only does the FED not know money from mud pie, the don't know a debit from a credit. Banks are not intermediaries. They pay for the deposits that the collectively already own. TDs are just DDs that have been shifted reflecting a demand for money.

Expand full comment

You're "on point". I haven't run across any other economist that has as good an understanding.

DM4 imparts good insight. But I can't understand the "weights". It looks almost like the distributed lag effect of money flows, which drops by about 40% between now and Jan. 1st.

Expand full comment

Barnett doesn't use lags.

Expand full comment

Hanke doesn't know money from mud pie. And Hanke's latest rank is wrong. N-gDp is accelerating.

Expand full comment