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Spencer's avatar

The FED's Ph.Ds. don't know a debit from a credit. All monetary savings originate within the confines of the payment's system. As TDs grow, DDs are depleted, dollar for dollar.

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Spencer's avatar

C--19 was already in the works. Powell dug a hole for himself. As I said: "The 4th qtr. 2019 is not the problem. The 1st qtr. 2020 will be negative." Nov 26, 2019.

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Spencer's avatar

The Federal Reserve Board’s figure, income velocity, Vi, is endogenously and artificially contrived (N-gDp divided by M) whereas Vt, is an “independent” or exogenous force (having “both magnitude and direction, making it a vector quantity”), acting on prices.

Vi at various intervals, moved in absolute divergent paths from Vt - giving the income velocity economists false signposts

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Spencer's avatar

There were 27 price forecasts by individuals and 9 by econometric models for the year 1978 (Business Week). The lowest (Gary Schilling, White Weld), the highest, (Freund, NY, Stock Exch) & (Sprinkel, Harris Trust & Sav.).

The range CPI, 4.9 – 6.5 percent. For the Econometric models, low (Wharton, U. of Penn) 5.7%; high, 6.6% U. of Ga.). For 1978 inflation based upon the CPI figure was 9.018% [and Leland Prichard, in his Money and Banking class, predicted 9%].

See: G.6 Debits and Deposit Turnover at Commercial Banks

HYPERLINK "http://bit.ly/2pjr81u" \t "_blank"http://bit.ly/2pjr81u

And we knew this already:

In 1931 a commission was established on Member Bank Reserve Requirements. The commission completed their recommendations after a 7 year inquiry on Feb. 5, 1938. The study was entitled

"Member Bank Reserve Requirements -- Analysis of Committee Proposal"

It's 2nd proposal: "Requirements against debits to deposits"

HYPERLINK "http://bit.ly/1A9bYH1" \t "_blank"http://bit.ly/1A9bYH1

After a 45 year hiatus, this research paper was "declassified" on March 23, 1983. By the time this paper was "declassified", Nobel Laureate Dr. Milton Friedman had declared RRs to be a "tax" [sic].

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Spencer's avatar

Economics is an exact science.

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Benjamin Cole's avatar

Good review of many decades of monetary policy.

Remember Charles Plosser!

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