Few people talk coherently about it. I hope I´m in the minority
"the drawdown in inventories actually reduced the headline GDP figure by 2.26%,"
Not to be repeated.
Money matters. Core inflation peaked at the same time as long-term money flows peaked. I.e., the correlation was synchronous. I.e., the distributed lag effect was, once again, an historical, or mathematical constant.
2022-01-01 5.3 peak
The rate-of-change in short-term money flows, the volume and velocity of means-of-payment money, the proxy for the real output of goods and services, the 10-month roc, must be negative to start a recession.
is already in recession territory.
Core inflation peaked at the same time money flows peaked.