"the drawdown in inventories actually reduced the headline GDP figure by 2.26%,"

Not to be repeated.

Money matters. Core inflation peaked at the same time as long-term money flows peaked. I.e., the correlation was synchronous. I.e., the distributed lag effect was, once again, an historical, or mathematical constant.

2021-01-01 1.7

2021-04-01 3.5

2021-07-01 3.9

2021-10-01 4.7

2022-01-01 5.3 peak

2022-04-01 5.0

2022-07-01 4.9

2022-10-01 4.8

2023-01-01 4.7

The rate-of-change in short-term money flows, the volume and velocity of means-of-payment money, the proxy for the real output of goods and services, the 10-month roc, must be negative to start a recession.


is already in recession territory.

Expand full comment

Core inflation peaked at the same time money flows peaked.

Expand full comment