"the drawdown in inventories actually reduced the headline GDP figure by 2.26%,"
Not to be repeated.
Money matters. Core inflation peaked at the same time as long-term money flows peaked. I.e., the correlation was synchronous. I.e., the distributed lag effect was, once again, an historical, or mathematical constant.
2021-01-01 1.7
2021-04-01 3.5
2021-07-01 3.9
2021-10-01 4.7
2022-01-01 5.3 peak
2022-04-01 5.0
2022-07-01 4.9
2022-10-01 4.8
2023-01-01 4.7
The rate-of-change in short-term money flows, the volume and velocity of means-of-payment money, the proxy for the real output of goods and services, the 10-month roc, must be negative to start a recession.
"the drawdown in inventories actually reduced the headline GDP figure by 2.26%,"
Not to be repeated.
Money matters. Core inflation peaked at the same time as long-term money flows peaked. I.e., the correlation was synchronous. I.e., the distributed lag effect was, once again, an historical, or mathematical constant.
2021-01-01 1.7
2021-04-01 3.5
2021-07-01 3.9
2021-10-01 4.7
2022-01-01 5.3 peak
2022-04-01 5.0
2022-07-01 4.9
2022-10-01 4.8
2023-01-01 4.7
The rate-of-change in short-term money flows, the volume and velocity of means-of-payment money, the proxy for the real output of goods and services, the 10-month roc, must be negative to start a recession.
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Mar23.pdf
is already in recession territory.
Core inflation peaked at the same time money flows peaked.