One takes straight to "heaven". The other makes you go "through hell"
Divisia aggregates shows a contraction in April. But the contraction doesn't begin until June (and maybe a little later because of FedNow instantaneous payments).
Reuters: “These officials also noted the Fed at some point could even lower short-term interest rates as it continues to draw down the roughly $8.5 trillion balance sheet, and that such a move would not be at odds with wider monetary policy.”
The FED should cut interest rates NOW – and continue with QT. The 1966 Interest Rate Adjustment Act is prima facie evidence.